An outbreak of severe weather — including the potential of large, damaging hail, destructive winds and tornadoes — kicks off Thursday across the central states. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. It’s one of the most favorable setups for severe weather in years in the Plains, and the impacts could be substantial.
Cities that could be affected by violent thunderstorms through the weekend include Dallas, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita, Kansas City, Des Moines and Milwaukee.
The zone from northern Texas to southern Nebraska is most at risk for severe storms late Thursday, where large hail and tornadoes are possible according to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center. But that’s just the beginning.
More severe storms are likely in Nebraska and the Corn Belt on Friday.
Saturday is expected to bring the most serious severe weather potential, when dangerous storms could erupt from southern Texas to northern Michigan and intense tornadoes aren’t out of the question.
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The hyperactive weather pattern won’t simmer until Tuesday of next week, and even that’s not a guarantee. May historically marks the peak of tornado season in the United States, and the conga line of storms affecting the central states could continue.
Thursday’s risk
There are actually two Level 3 out of 5 risk zones. One covers northwest Kansas between Garden City and Colby. That’s where there exists the best chance of rotating or supercell thunderstorms with a damaging wind, hail and potentially significant tornado threat. If storms can remain discrete and isolated, hail up to tennis ball size is possible.
The other Level 3 zone is from east of Lubbock, Tex., to near Oklahoma City. It includes Wichita Falls, Tex., as well as Lawton, Norman and Moore, Okla., and regions along the H.E. Bailey Turnpike (Interstate 44 southwest of Oklahoma City). That’s where a QLCS — or a squall line with embedded kinks of spin that can produce tornadoes — may materialize Thursday evening.
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A Level 2 out of 5 risk zone spans from northeast Colorado and southwestern Nebraska south through Texas Hill Country. It includes Garden City and Dodge City in Kansas; Woodward and Oklahoma City in Oklahoma; and Perryton (hit by a deadly tornado on June 15 last year), Abilene, Midland-Odessa and Wichita Falls in Texas.
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On Friday, there will also be two zones of greater severe weather risk: one beneath the low pressure center in Nebraska, where spin will be more plentiful. That could lead to an arcing band of rotating thunderstorms in eastern Nebraska or southern/southwestern Iowa. That zone may include northern Missouri and perhaps the Kansas City metro area. Both Omaha and Kansas City are included in a hatched zone on Storm Prediction Center outlooks for potential strong tornadoes.
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The other region to watch for a couple isolated rotating storms is farther south along the trailing cold front being dragged east by the low pressure system. In fact, a Level 2 out of 5 risk reaches all the way down to Tulsa and Dallas.
The weekend risk
Saturday already has a Level 3 out of 5 enhanced risk zone covering much of Kansas, Oklahoma and northern Texas. It includes Kansas City, Wichita, Tulsa, Oklahoma City and Wichita Falls, Tex.
A second storm system will approach from the west. The atmosphere will have reloaded with moisture and storm fuel. The ingredients are in place for a substantial severe weather outbreak with several intense tornadoes possible if ingredients come together.
It’s possible though that morning thunderstorms may gobble up some of the storm fuel and reduce how much is available for afternoon storms. That’s a possibility forecasters are working to iron out.
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“Any supercells that persist into late afternoon/early evening across the warm sector could pose an increasing strong tornado threat with time,” wrote the Storm Prediction Center. Flooding is probable too, especially in eastern Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas and southeast Kansas, where storms will train, or move repeatedly over the same areas.
Severe storms may continue, albeit to a slightly lesser degree, from northwest of Chicago all the way down to near Dallas on Sunday along the second storm system’s cold front.
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